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02 - February 25, 2025 Growth Planning Steering Committee Agenda PackageElginCounty Growth Planning Steering Committee Orders of the Day Tuesday, February 25, 2025, 12:30 p.m. Council Chambers 450 Sunset Drive St. Thomas ON Note for Members of the Public: Please click the link below to watch the Committee meeting: https://www.facebook.com/ElginCounty Accessible formats available upon request. Pages 1. Call to Order 2. Approval of the Agenda 3. Adoption of Minutes 2 4. Disclosure of Pecuniary Interest and the General Nature Thereof 5. Delegations 6. Reports/Briefings 6.1 Director of Planning and Development - Updated growth forecasts and 6 land needs assessment for County of Elgin 7. Other Business 8. Correspondence 9. Closed Meeting 9.1 Closed Meeting Minutes - January 24, 2025 9.2 Director of Planning and Development - Sunset Provincial Lands (verbal) Municipal Act Section 239 (2) (h) information explicitly supplied in confidence to the municipality or local board by Canada, a province or territory or a Crown agency of any of them; and (k) a position, plan, procedure, criteria or instruction to be applied to any negotiations carried on or to be carried on by or on behalf of the municipality or local board. 10. Motion to Rise and Report 11. Date of Next Meeting 12. Adjournment uoi Growth Planning Steering Committee Minutes January 24, 2025, 2:00 p.m. Council Chambers 450 Sunset Drive St. Thomas ON Members Present: Warden Grant Jones, Chair Deputy Warden Ed Ketchabaw Councillor Dominique Giguere Councillor Todd Noble Staff Present: Blaine Parkin, Chief Administrative Officer/Clerk Nicholas Loeb, Director of Legal Services Peter Dutchak, Director of Engineering Services Jennifer Ford, Director of Financial Services/Treasurer Mat Vaughan, Director of Planning and Development Carolyn Krahn, Manager of Economic Development, Tourism & Strategic Initiatives Katherine Thompson, Manager of Administrative Services/Deputy Clerk Stefanie Heide, Legislative Services Coordinator Call to Order The meeting was called to order at 2.00 p.m. with the Chief Administrative Officer/Clerk in the chair. 2. Election of Committee Chair and Vice Chair Moved by: Councillor Noble Seconded by: Councillor Giguere RESOLVED THAT Warden Jones be elected as Chair of the Growth Planning Steering Committee for 2025. Motion Carried. Moved by: Warden Jones Seconded by: Councillor Giguere Page 2 of 29 RESOLVED THAT Deputy Warden Ketchabaw be elected Vice Chair of the Growth Planning Steering Committee for 2025. Motion Carried. 3. Approval of the Agenda Warden Jones assumed the Chair of the meeting. Moved by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw Seconded by: Councillor Noble RESOLVED THAT the agenda for the January 24, 2025 meeting of the Growth Planning Steering Committee be approved as presented. Motion Carried. 4. Adoption of Minutes Moved by: Councillor Noble Seconded by: Councillor Giguere RESOLVED THAT the minutes of the meeting held on October 18, 2024 be adopted. Motion Carried. 5. Disclosure of Pecuniary Interest and the General Nature Thereof None. 6. Delegations None. 7. Reports/Briefings 7.1 Manager of Administrative Services/Deputy Clerk - Pre -Budget Consultation Feedback for the 2025 Ontario Budget The Manager of Administrative Services/Deputy Clerk presented a report with a draft letter for the Committee's consideration to be submitted for pre -budget consultation feedback for the 2025 Ontario Budget. Moved by: Councillor Giguere Seconded by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw RESOLVED THAT feedback from the Growth Planning Steering Committee be incorporated into the Pre -Budget Consultation submission and recommended to County Council for approval at the January 28, 2025 meeting. 2 Page 3 of 29 Motion Carried. 8. Other Business None. 9. Correspondence None. 10. Closed Meeting Moved by: Councillor Noble Seconded by: Councillor Giguere RESOLVED THAT we do now proceed into closed meeting session in accordance with the Municipal Act to discuss the following matters under Municipal Act Section 239 (2): Closed Meeting Item #1 - Closed Meeting Minutes - October 18, 2024 Closed Meeting Item #2 - Sunset Provincial Lands (c) a proposed or pending acquisition or disposition of land by the municipality or local board; (h) information explicitly supplied in confidence to the municipality or local board by Canada, a province or territory or a Crown agency of any of them; and (k) a position, plan, procedure, criteria or instruction to be applied to any negotiations carried on or to be carried on by or on behalf of the municipality or local board. Motion Carried. 10.1 Closed Meeting Minutes -October 18, 2024 10.2 Sunset Provincial Lands 11. Motion to Rise and Report Moved by: Councillor Noble Seconded by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw RESOLVED THAT we do now rise and report. Motion Carried. Closed Meeting Item #1 - Closed Meeting Minutes - October 18, 2024 Moved by: Councillor Noble Seconded by: Councillor Giguere RESOLVED THAT the October 18, 2024 Closed Meeting Minutes be adopted. 3 Page 4 of 29 Motion Carried. Closed Meeting Item #2 - Sunset Provincial Lands Moved by: Councillor Noble Seconded by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw RESOLVED THAT staff do now proceed as directed. Motion Carried. 12. Date of Next Meeting The Growth Planning Steering Committee will meet again at the call of the Chair. 13. Adjournment Moved by: Councillor Giguere Seconded by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw RESOLVED THAT we do now adjourn at 4.00 p.m. to meet again at the call of the Chair. Motion Carried. Blaine Parkin, Chief Administrative Officer/Clerk. Warden Grant Jones, Chair. 0 Page 5 of 29 ElginCounty Report to Growth Planning Steering Committee From: Mat Vaughan, Director of Planning and Development Date: February 28, 2025 Subject: Updated growth forecasts and land needs assessment for County of Elgin Recommendation(s): THAT the report titled "Updated growth forecasts and land needs assessment for County of Elgin" from the Director of Planning and Development dated February 28, 2025, be received and filed. AND THAT County Council direct planning staff to update the County's adopted Official Plan with the new population and employment projections and bring the Official Plan back to Council for review and readoption. Introduction: As the County continues to work towards finalizing its Official Plan approval process with the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, several factors influencing population and employment growth have recently changed which have caused the need to revisit the County's 2022 Population and Employment forecasts. Hemson Consulting has been retained to update the forecasts and has recently shared the update with planning staff. The results and conclusions of Hemson's update are included herein, along with staff's recommendations for next steps with the County's adopted Official Plan. Background and Discussion: As part of the Elgin County Official Plan Review Background Analysis, along with other studies, the completion of population and employment projections were completed by Hemson Consulting Ltd. to determine how and where Elgin County would grow. On November 15, 2023, as part of an update to the Hemson Growth Forecasts and Land Needs Analysis Report, Hemson Consulting Ltd provided a memorandum analyzes on the effect of the Volkswagen EV battery plant in St. Thomas on the long- term growth prospects including population, employment and associated land needs. The overall conclusions of the memorandum were that planned housing growth in Elgin, as well as planned employment areas, remain an appropriate basis for the County Official Plan and need not be revised. Page 6 of 29 In a memorandum dated August 30, 2024, Hemson Consulting Ltd provided comments on the proposed expansion of the Norman-Lyndale Tier I settlement area in the Municipality of Central Elgin, which at the time, was based on an increase of 3,000 homes, or 10,000 new residents. The comments were included in a report entitled "Norman-Lyndale Settlement Boundary Expansion" which was presented to Council on September 10, 2024. The memorandum was provided to address the need for additional residential land uses in Central Elgin, and more broadly in the County of Elgin and City of St. Thomas. The outlook on the long-term growth prospects for the County and Central Elgin remained consistent with the conclusions of Hemson's two previous reports Population, Housing and Employment Forecasts and Associated Land Needs Analysis (2022), and an Update to Hemson Growth Forecasts and Land Needs Analysis Report (2023). Based on new information, population projections for the area changed and now estimated at 7,500 - 15,000 residents (2,000 — 7,000 homes). These new projections tipped the scale in reference to current population and employment projections and required an update to the County's 2023 Population and Employment projections. On October 8, 2024 County Council approved to contract Hemson Consulting Ltd., to update the County's Population and Employment Projections. Hemson's updated growth forecast and land needs assessment examines population, housing, and employment forecasts and incorporates recent developments such as the Fall 2024 Ministry of Finance (MOF) Ontario Population Projections, Volkswagen's proposed EV battery plant in St. Thomas, and the proposed expansion of the Norman- Lyndale Tier I settlement area. Key points from Hemson's assessment include: Population Projections: The 2024 MOF Projections estimate a population of 141,600 permanent residents in the Elgin Census Division by 2051, an increase of 9,500 residents compared to previous forecasts. 2. Volkswagen EV Battery Plant: Expected to create 2,000 to 3,000 on -site jobs and additional spin-off jobs, significantly impacting regional employment and growth. 3. Norman-Lyndale Expansion: Proposed expansion involves 270 acres for residential or mixed uses, potentially increasing Central Elgin's population growth. 4. Growth Distribution: Most additional population and housing growth will occur in Central Elgin, while employment growth will be concentrated in Central Elgin and Southwold. The projected population growth for Central Elgin from 2021 to 2051 is an additional 3,910 people. This increase is attributed to the potential expansion of the Norman-Lyndale settlement area and its proximity to the Volkswagen EV battery plant. Page 7 of 29 Aylmer is projected to grow by 1,480 housing units from 2021 to 2051. This growth is distributed across intensification within the built-up area, development in designated growth areas (DGA), and rural areas. 5. Land Needs Assessment: Elgin County has sufficient designated residential land to meet growth projections to 2051, except for Aylmer and Central Elgin, which face land deficiencies. Based on the housing unit allocations and density assumptions, Aylmer requires 43.9 hectares of net land for the DGA, which translates to 73.1 hectares of gross land when accounting for public lands and infrastructure needs. The County's employment area land supply is adequate to meet forecast employment growth. 6. Caution with MOF Projections: These projections should be interpreted with caution due to their variability and sensitivity to changing Federal policies. 7. Recommendations: The assessment suggests that the proposed expansion area in Norman-Lyndale is suitable for urban development, provided municipal services can be extended cost-effectively. The current analysis indicates that Aylmer faces a land deficiency and will need additional land to meet its long-term residential needs. Aylmer faces a land deficiency of 35.6 hectares to accommodate its projected housing growth by 2051 The memorandum concludes that the updated forecasts align with Provincial planning requirements and provide a framework for addressing the County's evolving land use and growth management needs. The effects of the VW Plant on Central Elgin The memorandum indicates that Central Elgin is projected to run out of vacant land before 2051. Specifically, the updated analysis shows that Central Elgin will have a land deficiency of 19.9 hectares by 2051. This is a change from the previous study, which had projected a surplus of 36.7 hectares. Despite having enough vacant land within its Tier 1 and Tier 2 settlement areas to accommodate near -term and long-term housing growth, the vacant residential land in Central Elgin's Tier 1 settlement areas is insufficient to meet long-term residential land needs to 2051. Therefore, the proposed expansion of the Norman-Lyndale settlement area is considered a suitable solution to address this deficiency, provided that municipal water and wastewater services can be extended to the area cost-effectively. Page 8 of 29 Financial Implications: Alignment with Strategic Priorities: Serving Elgin Growing Elgin Investing in Elgin ❑ Ensuring alignment of ® Planning for and ❑ Ensuring we have the current programs and facilitating commercial, necessary tools, services with community industrial, residential, and resources, and need. agricultural growth. infrastructure to deliver programs and services ® Exploring different ways ® Fostering a healthy now and in the future. of addressing community environment. need. ❑ Delivering mandated ❑ Enhancing quality of programs and services ® Engaging with our place. efficiently and effectively. community and other stakeholders. Local Municipal Partner Impact: Two LMPs with notable changes in the latest Population and employment lands needs assessment are Central Elgin and Aylmer. Communication Reauirements: This information should be circulated to all of the local municipalities. Conclusion: Hemson's updated analysis aligns with Provincial planning requirements and provides a framework for addressing the County's land use and growth management needs. Based on this analysis, staff are seeking direction from Council to accept Hemson's updated analysis and update the County's adopted new Official Plan with the information contained in the memorandum and bring the Official Plan to a future Council meeting for their review and consideration. All of which is Respectfully Submitted Mat Vaughan Director of Planning and Development Approved for Submission Blaine Parkin Chief Administrative Officer/Clerk Page 9 of 29 ............................... IIIIIIIII Her',ison Consulting I_Ad 1000 — 30 51. PutrIc.k Street, Crrrrrnto, ON M5_F 3n3 416 593 5090 � I www.h nr.>rrri.cOrrr To: Mat Vaughan, Director of Planning and Development, County of Elgin From: Stefan Krzeczunowicz, Patrick Barbieri Date: February 4, 2025 Re: Updated Growth Forecasts and Land Needs Assessment for County of Elgin This memorandum provides updates to the population, housing, and employment forecasts for the County of Elgin, originally set out in the Population, Housing and Employment Forecasts and Associated Land Needs Analysis (County LNA) prepared by Hemson Consulting in June 2022 and amended on November 23, 2022. These updates incorporate analyses of recent developments —including the release of Fall 2024 Ministry of Finance Ontario Population Projections, Volkswagen's proposed electric vehicle (EV) battery plant in St. Thomas, and the proposed expansion of the Norman-Lyndale Tier I settlement area in the Municipality of Central Elgin —as well as recent growth trends. The objective is to assess the impact of these developments on the County's long-term growth prospects and associated land needs. III III°' III II. 4 h°°) IIII h° III III) III'' III° The forecast update addresses significant developments that have occurred since the completion of the County LNA, including: 1. Release of Fall 2024 Ministry of Finance Ontario Population Projections (MOF Projections): The MOF Projections estimate a population of 141,600 permanent residents in the Elgin Census Division by 2051, an increase of 9,500 residents compared to the County LNA forecast. The Elgin Census Division, as defined by Statistics Canada, includes the County of Egin and the City of St. Thomas. The Provincial PlanningStatement2024 (PPS 2024) which came into force on October 20, 2024, requires the County to base its population and employment forecasts on the MOF Projections, or a modified version of the projections as appropriate. Page 10 of 29 2. Volkswagen EV Battery Plant: The plan by Volkswagen to construct a major electric vehicle (EV) battery plant on a 1,500 acre site in St. Thomas, which is expected to transform the regional economy. The plant is projected to create 2,000 to 3,000 on -site jobs, with thousands of additional spin-off jobs. In 2023, the Provincial Government passed Bill 63, the St. Thomas -Central Elgin Boundary AdjustmentAct, which transferred 700 acres of land from the Municipality of Central Elgin to the City of St. Thomas. This is in addition to 800 acres purchased by St. Thomas in 2022. 3. Proposed Expansion of Norman-Lyndale Tier I Settlement Area: The expansion involves approximately 270 acres of land located at 467 Sunset Drive, in the Municipality of Central Elgin. These lands, previously part of the site of the St. Thomas Psychiatric Hospital, are currently owned by the Province of Ontario. Redevelopment plans are underway to convert the area, which is currently cultivated farmland, for residential or mixed uses. The main purpose of the updated forecasts is to translate the higher MOF Projections into a revised housing unit forecast, an associated employment growth forecast, and an assessment of the sufficiency of the County's remaining vacant land supply across local municipalities. It is noted that the 2021 vacant supply data used for the County LNA has not been updated as part of the analysis. III III III �Ilh° III �III114 III III°°° �.�III 114°°'°° III III°'° III III'° w�III "III"""III III The PPS 2024 now requires the County to base its population and employment forecasts on MOF projections, or a modified version of the projections as appropriate. As such, the forecasts set out in this memo are based on population growth contained in the 2024 MOF Projections. However, care should be taken if these forecasts are to be used to make substantive changes to the County OP for the following reasons: First, the MOF Projections are annual projections of population not employment, whereas the most significant changes to growth forecasts in the County LNA are related to employment. • Second, the MOF Projections are produced annually for Ontario and its 49 Census Divisions. As noted above, the Elgin Census Division includes both the County and St. Thomas. I ESN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 11 of 29 Third, the MOF Projections assume that population growth will reflect recent migration trends and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns. To that extent, they are not "forecasts" that explicitly account for changes in future Federal immigration policies, and local housing demand, land use plans, infrastructure investments, or the availability of land for development. As such, projections for Census Divisions with limited land for development may overstate the growth potential. And projections for areas with significant planned infrastructure investment may understate growth potential. • Of particular relevance to the County of Elgin is that the MOF Projections are highly variable and are particularly sensitive to shifts in Federal immigration and non- permanent resident (NPR) policies. While immigration and NPRs contribute minimally to Elgin County's growth (10% and 6%, respectively, between 2018/19 and 2022/23), broader immigration and NPR trends influence intra-provincial migration to the County. Early in 2024, some changes to NPR targets were carried out, particularly to reduce the numbers of international students. Other changes through that year have sought to tighten eligibility for employers to hire temporary foreign workers. In September of 2024, following a Federal Cabinet retreat, the government announced a review of the targets for permanent immigration. And more recently, it cut permanent resident targets 20% from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025 and plans to keep it on a downtrend after that with 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. The new targets for permanent residents will still be well above historical levels. However, they will be much more in line with immigration levels assumed under the original County LNA. Future MOF projections may therefore be expected to decrease as the reduced immigration targets take full effect. In short, while the MOF Projections can provide valuable insights, they must be interpreted with caution, considering their variability, sensitivity to changing Federal policies, and limited capacity to reflect local development opportunities and constraints. Figure 1 outlines the components of growth for the Elgin Census Division based on the MOF Projections. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 12 of 29 Figure 1: Components of Population Growth, MOF Population Projections 2, 500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 Ci�� rh�y�<<.51�Y ,�.C>ti 4.C)D` i:`a,1 _i`Z�' i"5ti��1`�yL<4J���C.7� <<`��<<'��l`��'L<l`�LD ��`,Ly<<':5�'<<5}'<<'i7L<l`���c'a�<<}7�<<`�<<'�C`L�.C`��D� > > L L 1: b 1 ti L ti b ti L ti ti L b ti L L Natural Iricrease - Migration Avg Migratiori: Historical Avg. Migration Forecast Source: Hemson Consulting, based on MOF Projections, Fall 2024 III Il .III III°. °°III III° The 2024 MOF Projections, which serve as the basis for this update, provide population projections only and are limited to the Census Division level, encompassing both the County and City of St. Thomas. To develop a revised forecast for the County, the following steps were undertaken: ■ Census Division Population Allocation: The growth distribution between the County and City remains consistent with the assumptions in the County LNA. This means that approximately 50% of the projected population growth from 2021 to 2051 is allocated to each. The MOF Projections estimate a total growth of 43,000 people for the Elgin Census Division, with 21,080 allocated to the County. Figure 2 illustrates the difference between the County LNA and MOF Projections to 2051.1 1 It is noted that in April 2024, the City of St. Thomas released an updated 2051 population growth forecast of 79,500 by 2051. These forecasts rightly note that the then most recent (2023) MOF Projections do not account for the impact of the EV battery plant on the City's growth (see Watson and Associates, Growth Analysis Study, April 2024). ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,, milli Page 13 of 29 Figure 2: Comparison of County LNA Forecast and MOF Projections to 2051 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 141,600 132,100 _WW"VO.M� 75,100 Courity of Elgin - Current Forecast _County of Elgin - Previous Study _Flgiri Census Division: MOF Spring 2021 Elgin Census Division: MOF Fall 2024 Source: Hemson Consulting, based on MOF Projections, Fall 2024. ■ Allocation of County Growth to Local Municipalities: Revisions to the allocation of population, housing, and employment throughout the County reflect recent developments, including: 0 population and housing growth trends as identified in Statistics Canada's 2024 Annual Demographic Estimates and recent CMHC housing market data; 0 employment expectations for the County associated with the EV battery plant as set out in Hemson's memorandum Update to Hemson Growth Forecasts and Land Needs, dated November 23, 2023; and 0 observations on County growth expectations set out in Hemson's memorandum Comments on Possible Expansion to Norman-Lyndale Settlement Area, dated August 30, 2024. Additional employment growth in the County resulting from the EV battery plant, as well as employment arising from increased population growth, have been allocated based on the same methodology used for the County LNA. Population -related employment is generally allocated on the basis the location of population growth. Employment land employment is allocated to local municipalities with existing vacant employment lands, such as Southwold and Central Elgin. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I,,,,I IE M O N ,,,,,,,,,, milli Page 14 of 29 i. Revised Population Allocations As shown above in Figure 2, the 2024 MOF Projections estimate higher population growth for the Elgin Census Division to 2051 compared to the earlier County LNA. The updated population forecasts for the County assume that this higher growth will incorporate additional population and housing arising from the new battery plant for the following reasons: The long-term demand for housing in the County is unlikely to be significantly impacted by the plant. The housing forecasts in the County LNA implicitly assume that a small portion of workers employed in the County's employment areas will reside in newly constructed housing within the County. The battery plant, expected to create up to 3,000 on -site jobs in St. Thomas, could result in approximately 15% of these workers (about 450 individuals) choosing to live in the County. This would generate an estimated demand for 225 additional housing units, accounting for the likelihood that some workers may transition from existing jobs within the County to positions at the plant. This represents only 3% of the 30-year housing demand forecast of 7,220 units in the County LNA. As shown in Figure 3, Central Elgin has been allocated a greater share of updated population growth due to the potential expansion of the Norman-Lyndale settlement area and its proximity to the battery plant. Central Elgin's annual growth rate has increased by 1%, resulting in an additional 3,910 people by 2051. All other local municipalities in the County also exhibit increased growth rates to 2051. I E . N ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 15 of 29 Figure 3: Updated Local Population Forecasts, 2021-2051 West Elgin / r 560 390 %����1,410 �h Srsutiwvrsld fir" 1,060 %,:%,; %% 30 fV�alai�ids. 4,410 Dutton/C: wm/ich �'� "'%!� 1,050 840 „„/i/r,%r,i, i,entral Elgin r%iiiiG%ii,ir` //`%`//// ua ////�// ////;%// �40 ��f f� l�roiii//riiii%(1�� nk% 7,980 Bayiiai i 1,840 1,260 ,2 84(Dt Aylmer 3,830 (� 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 (3,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 . MOF Proiection m ir"revious> Study Source: Hemson Consulting ii. Employment Growth Impacts Although development of the battery plant is still in its early stages, construction and initial production at the plant will likely occur prior to the next County Official Plan review in 5 to 10 years. Nevertheless, the employment forecasts in the County LNA remain a reasonable basis on which to plan for employment on both designated employment land and other community -related and rural employment activities. As a result of incorporating the higher population growth associated with the 2024 MOF Projections, total employment in the County is also expected to grow correspondingly. All local municipalities are forecast to see an increase in employment by 2051, particularly those with available employment lands, such as Central Elgin and Southwold. Figure 4 illustrates the revised employment growth for the County's local municipalities. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I,,,,l E D' I ,,,,,,,,,, milli Page 16 of 29 Figure 4: Updated Total Employment Forecasts, 2021-2051 West Elgin r;r;' ;' r ;,; 660 620 So a ti � w o l d r„ rr„ rr„r�„ rr„ rr„ rr, rr„ rr„ rr,, rr„ rr„ r �� 2,870 C, .. I//! rr„ rr„ rr„ rr), rr„ rr„ /, iir rrrr����'/��1�✓ll�t�`�lr��l r rr rr r1i, ,,rr 1,290 V�alai�id�: � y C:�OWjl�rirr�iirr irk///% uttr,7r��/C:�ur�wvic;i� 510 380 r /r ri rr ,,,.,;; 2,650 i,C.'Citl'a E_SyICI jt%iiiiG%ri,�r�r; ��'Y �i�i� jYY�i�I��/%'irp�/���Cf'd'�/f''(�,'i��'�''��'��l�l°���/f'�'"�'iCvi/!!f'��(�l��l Bayham 0 7080 r r rr Aylmer 60 rr,r,, ,r, ,r, rr ,r,r,, ,,rr 1,690 �r , , �,,,, �„ � � � 4� 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 . eased on MOF Projection m Previous Study Source: Hemson Consulting a) Employment Land Employment Impacts Volkswagen's EV battery plant is expected to create up to 3,000 on -site jobs in St. Thomas. Employment land job growth associated with this development within the County is anticipated to be concentrated in Southwold and Central Elgin, reflecting their existing vacant employment lands and the potential spin-off effects of the plant (see Figure 5).2 2 For a detailed discussion of the job multipliers, and timing and location of job growth associated with the battery plant, including implications for County growth and land needs, see Hemson Consulting, Update to Hemson Growth Forecasts and Land Needs, November 23, 2023. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Page 17 of 29 Figure 5: Updated Employment Land Employment Forecasts, 2021-2051 West Elgin r;,;' ;' , ;,; 660 620 Soatim/old ,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,° � r �� 2,870 y ,, Malahids. � ,,,,, „ „ , , ,,r 1,290 C:�uttr,7r��/C:�urwvic;i� 510 380 i;t:c�tral E=lsyir� ,,,,,,,.,;; ,,,, 2,650 jri���%��,i��; rrrr,r,r �rr������/%''���p�����r�"�ari'u"'�''r��;//�'r'�,��'��r�l%���r''�%e�'i�%%!''�'���l��t Bayham M '0 780 Aylmer 4�60 1,690 � (E 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 . Based on MOF Projection m Previous Study Source: Hemson Consulting The updated employment land employment forecasts consider the following factors: Large manufacturing investments, like the EV battery plant, do not necessarily generate significant growth in their immediate vicinity. Much of the construction labour and permanent operating employment will consist of commuters from London, St. Thomas, and urban areas beyond the County. The original County LNA forecasts already accounted for similar levels of economic, employment, and housing growth over a 30-year horizon, even though the concentrated nature of growth resulting from this single major investment was not specifically anticipated. • Official plans are regularly reviewed. If growth exceeds forecast targets —whether or not driven by the EV battery plant —the County's Official Plan can be revised during scheduled reviews or at any other time, as needed. b) Non -Employment Land Impacts Employment growth outside designated employment areas is divided into two categories: "population -related employment" and "rural employment": ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,, milli Page 18 of 29 • Population -related employment is employment in Elgin that primarily serves the resident population and includes sectors such as retail, education, health care, local government, and urban work -at-home employment. The distribution of population - related employment across the County is largely tied to population growth and the community area (i.e. residential) land needs assessment accounts for urban land needs associated with this type of employment. To the extent that the County's population and housing forecasts remain unaffected by the battery plant (see below), the plant's impact on population -related employment in urban communities is expected to be minimal. • Rural Employment encompasses jobs in rural areas, including primary industries and agriculture, as well as some uses typically found in urban employment areas, but not located on urban land designated for industrial or commercial use. These are typically small-scale manufacturing or construction businesses as well as tourism (including agri-tourism) and recreation activities which play an important role in Elgin. Also important in the Elgin context is the role of agricultural labour, particularly in Bayham and Malahide. While the battery plant is unlikely to directly impact most of these activities, additional retail or service demands may arise from workers on their way to work from London through Southwold and Central Elgin along Highways 4 and 30, and Wonderland Rd South and Wellington Rd South. Commuters to the battery plant could provide increased trade to gas stations on these major routes (though it is unclear whether there are any stations currently in the County at these locations). Of note is that, by 2051, the vast majority of passenger vehicles will be electrically powered. Convenience retail demand from commuters may also grow slightly, but it is unlikely to warrant significant retail space or employment lands. Food services are another commercial use potentially affected by commuter traffic from London. However, large manufacturing employers often provide on -site food services, reducing external demand. Additionally, St. Thomas already hosts numerous coffee shops and fast food outlets, including a Tim Hortons very near the battery plant site at Highways 52 and 30. Given the existing and planned commercial developments in London, along the Highway 401 corridor (e.g. ON Routes), and in St. Thomas, any additional demand from commuters is expected to be adequately met over time. I E . I ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 19 of 29 XT�11'S ASSIII IIRA III "1 "' w I \A tJ III II II Y XIII1111111A° The methodology for calculating the Community Area Land Needs based on the 2024 MOF Projections remains consistent with the approach outline in the County LNA. Key factors include: a net -to -gross land need assumption of 60% to 70%, accounting for land required for municipal infrastructure, local retail, and institutional requirements; an expected density of 25-27 residential units per net hectare for future residential development; housing -type propensities consistent with the County LNA; and vacant land supply data that aligns with the County LNA. This update incorporates the newly available 2021 Census net undercoverage rates for each municipality and revises the assumption for expected community area jobs, reducing it from 1 job per 12 people to 1 job per 10 people to reflect latest trends. i. Housing Allocations and Growth Table 1 summarizes the distribution of total housing in the County between 2021 and 2051. In keeping with PPS and County Official Plan policies, most growth will be directed to Tier 1 settlement areas, either through intensification within built-up areas or development on vacant land in designated growth areas (DGA). A smaller share of housing growth is allocated to rural settlements and scattered lots in rural areas. I ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 20 of 29 Table 1: Housing Allocations, 2021-2051 2021 2051 Total Unit Growth Aylmer 3,070 4,550 1,480 Bayham 2,260 3,050 790 Central Elgin 5,460 9,220 3,760 Dutton/Du nwich 1,600 2,100 500 Malahide 3,010 4,510 1,500 Southwold 1,710 2,520 810 West Elgin 2,100 2,490 390 Elgin County 19,210 28,440 9,230 Source: Hemson based on MOF Projections, Fall 2024. Table 2 shows the amount of housing growth forecast to occur in each lower -tier municipality as intensification within the existing built-up area between 2021 and 2051. About 16% of new units are expected to be built as intensification within the built-up area, requiring no additional land. Table 2: Housing Growth Through Intensification, 2021 - 2051 Total Unit Growth Intensification Rate Intensification Units Aylmer 1,480 20% 296 Bayham 790 15% 119 Central Elgin 3,760 20% 752 Dutton/Du nwich 500 15% 75 Malahide 1,500 10% 150 Southwold 810 15% 122 West Elgin 390 0% 0 Elgin County 9,230 16% 1,513 Source: Hemson Consulting Table 3 sets out the share of housing growth —about 8% across the County —that is forecast to be accommodated in rural areas, both within unserviced Tier 3 settlement areas as well as on scattered vacant lots of record outside settlement areas. As with the intensification units, development in the Tier 3 settlement areas and rural areas is assumed to not require any additional land as there is sufficient vacant land already available in those areas. No rural area growth is assigned to Alymer. I E M. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 21 of 29 Table 3: New Housing in Tier 3 Settlements & Rural Areas, 2021 - 2051 Total Unit Growth Tier 3 Share Tier 3 Units Aylmer 1,480 0% 0 Bayham 790 10% 79 Central Elgin 3,760 10% 376 Dutton/Du nwich 500 10% 50 Malahide 1,500 10% 150 Southwold 810 10% 81 West Elgin 390 10% 39 Elgin County 9,230 8% 775 Source: Hemson Consulting The remaining 75% of housing growth-6,942 units —will take place in the DGA (see Table 4). Table 4: Housing Growth in Designated Growth Areas, 2021 - 2051 Total Unit Growth Designated Growth Area Share Designated Growth Area Units Aylmer 1,480 80% 1,184 Bayham 790 75% 593 Central Elgin 3,760 70% 2,632 Dutton/Dunwich 500 75% 375 Malahide 1,500 80% 1,200 Southwold 810 75% 608 West Elgin 390 90% 351 Elgin County 9,230 75% 6,942 Source: Hemson Consulting ii. Density and Land Requirements A survey of recently constructed housing densities across Elgin's settlement areas undertaken as part of the County LNA informed the analysis, with density assumptions for future development being slightly higher than current trends to align with Provincial and I EMSN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 22 of 29 Official Plan policies promoting a more compact urban form and transit -supportive settlement areas: • Central Elgin and Aylmer: 27 units per hectare • Other DGA: 25 units per hectare Based on the housing unit allocations and density assumptions, a "net" community area land need for the DGA is calculated for each municipality. Net land needs are then translated into gross (developable) land needs to accommodate public lands (e.g. local parks, local roadways, stormwater management facilities, and local schools) and population -related employment (e.g. local retail). Table 5 summarizes the net and gross land requirements for each municipality. Table 5: Land Required in Designated Growth Areas (DGA) to 2051 DGA Units Unit Density Net Land Need (ha) Net to Gross Assumption Gross Land Need (ha) Aylmer 1,184 27 43.9 60% 73.1 Bayham 593 25 23.7 70% 33.9 Central Elgin 2,632 27 97.5 60% 162.5 Dutton/Dunwich 375 25 15.0 70% 21.4 Malahide 1,200 25 48.0 70% 68.6 Southwold 608 25 24.3 70% 34.7 West Elgin 351 25 14.0 70% 20.1 Elgin County 6,942 1 26 1 267.7 1 65%1 412.2 Source: Hemson Consulting iii. Sufficiency of Supply This land need is then compared to the availability of vacant land in Tier 1 and Tier 2 settlement areas to determine the sufficiency of supply. Table 6 displays the results of this comparison. I EDO ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, milli Page 23 of 29 Table 6: Sufficiency of DGA Residential Vacant Land to 2051 (gross ha) Sufficiency of Vacant Land: Vacant Land: Vacant Land to Gross Land Tier 1 Tier 2 Accommodate Need (ha) Settlements Settlements Vacant Land Allocation Aylmer 73.1 37.5 0.0 37.5 Bayham 33.9 122.8 0.0 122.8 89.0 Central Elgin 162.5 61.3 81.3 142.6 Dutton/Dunwich 21.4 68.1 0.0 68.1 46.7 Malahide 68.6 0.0 87.5 87.5 18.9 Southwold 34.7 0.0 108.8 108.8 74.1 West Elgin 20.1 100.8 0.0 100.8 80.8 Elgin County 412.2 390.5 277.6 668.2 256.0 Source: Hemson Consulting As seen above, Elgin County as a whole has sufficient designated residential land to meet growth projections to 2051. However, Aylmer continues to face a land deficiency, as it did under the County LNA, and Central Elgin is now projected to run out of vacant land before 2051 (see Table 7). Table 7: Sufficiency of DGA, County LNA vs. 2024 Update 2021 Report 2024 Update Aylmer M) H) (;) Bayham 93.2 89.0 Central Elgin 36.7 U.C).`)) Dutton/Dunwich 47.5 46.7 Malahide 29.4 18.9 Southwold 75.8 74.1 West Elgin 81.3 80.8 Elgin County 343.3 256.0 Source: Hemson Consulting XM�11'S ASSIII III III° °III [DNMIII III h° IIIIIIIIIIA This section presents the results of the updated employment area land needs assessment. Employment area is generally required to accommodate employment land employment growth.' Table 8 provides details on employment land employment growth forecasts to 2051. s Both the PianningAct (in 2023) and the Provincial Planning Statement (in 2024) introduced updated definitions of an "area of employment", excluding institutional and commercial uses, except for retail and office uses I E . ➢.. N ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, milli Page 24 of 29 The County requires sufficient employment land to support the addition of about 5,200 new jobs, which represents an increase of 1,300 jobs compared to the earlier forecasts for 2051 in the County LNA (see Table 8). A small portion of these new jobs can be accommodated as intensification on existing sites in the Town of Aylmer and Township of Southwold. The land needs assessment assumes that approximately 6% of all employment land employment job growth will occur through intensification. Table 8: Employment Land Employment Growth 2021— 2051 2021 2051 Total ELE Growth Aylmer 1,600 2,455 855 Bayham 350 432 82 Central Elgin 1,530 2,706 1,176 Dutton/Dunwich 110 110 0 Malahide 670 670 0 Southwold 650 3,230 2,580 West Elgin 340 837 497 Elgin County 5,250 10,440 5,190 Source: Hemson Consulting The land needs assessment assumes an employment land density of 20 jobs per net hectare in municipalities where lands are generally serviced and between 12 and 15 jobs per net hectare in municipalities where lands are generally unserviced. Table 9 presents the net land need required to accommodate the employment land jobs in Tier 1 and Tier 2 settlement areas. associated with manufacturing, warehousing, and other permitted uses. This change is expected to have minimal impact on the County's land needs assessment, as most employment areas in Elgin lack the now -excluded uses. I E M. .. N ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, milli Page 25 of 29 Table 9: Employment Area Land Need 2021- 2051 Job Growth on Employment Lands Density Assumed (Jobs per Net ha) Land Need to Accommodate Job Growth (ha) Net to Gross Assumption Gross Developable Land Need (ha) Aylmer 684 20 34.2 80% 42.8 Bayham 41 12 3.4 85% 4.0 Central Elgin 847 20 42.3 80% 52.9 Dutton/Dunwich 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a Malahide 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a Southwold 2,245 20 112.2 80% 140.3 West Elgin 248 15 16.6 85% 19.5 Elgin County 4,065 19 208.7 80% 259.5 Source: Hemson Consulting The net land need shown in Table 9 is translated into a gross land need using net -to -gross factors. This accounts for long-term site vacancy due to topographical and locational constraints and provides for public land needs, such as local roads, stormwater management facilities, and other utilities in employment areas. Based on this analysis, the County will need approximately 260 gross developable hectares of designated employment land to meet the forecast employment land employment growth to 2051. The sufficiency of the currently designated employment lands in Elgin is summarized in Table 10. This table demonstrates that the County's employment area land supply is adequate to meet the forecast employment growth, both at the County level and locally. The Township of Southwold, in particular, has a significant long-term supply of vacant employment land. These findings are not materially different from those set out in the earlier County LNA (see Table 11). I E . I ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 26 of 29 Table 10: Sufficiency of Employment Area to 2051 (Gross Ha) Sufficiency of Vacant Land Vacant Land to Gross Land within Tier 1 & 2 Accommodate Need (ha) Settlements Allocation Aylmer 42.8 42.8 0.0 Bayham 4.0 4.0 0.0 Central Elgin 52.9 107.0 54.1 Dutton/Dunwich n/a n/a n/a Malah ide n/a n/a n/a Southwold 140.3 198.4 58.1 West Elgin 19.5 19.5 0.0 Elgin County 259.5 371.7 112.2 Source: Hemson Consulting Table 11: Sufficiency of Employment Area, County LNA vs. 2024 Update 2023 Supplemental Report 2024 Update Aylmer 0.0 0.0 Bayham 0.0 0.0 Central Elgin 62.0 54.1 Dutton/Dunwich n/a n/a Malahide n/a n/a Southwold 93.5 58.1 West Elgin 0.0 0.0 Elgin County 155.6 112.2 Source: Hemson Consulting C I CIL,...tJ The updated analysis above aligns with Provincial planning requirements and provides a framework for addressing the County's evolving land use and growth management needs. Based on this analysis, the following conclusions are made: I°°IEMSN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 27 of 29 • Updated Population Projections: The 2024 MOF Projections estimate a population of 141,600 permanent residents in the Elgin Census Division by 2051, representing an increase of 9,500 residents compared to the County LNA forecast. • Caution in Using MOF Projections: While the PPS 2024 requires the County to base its population and employment forecasts on the MOF Projections, these projections should be interpreted with caution, considering their variability, sensitivity to changing Federal policies, and limited capacity to reflect local development opportunities and constraints. Future MOF Projections may be expected to decrease as reduced Federal immigration targets are implemented over the coming years. • County -Wide Planned Growth Remains Valid: In general, planned housing growth in Elgin and designated employment areas remain an appropriate basis for the County Official Plan. These do not require wholesale revisions due to the announcement of the new EV battery plant or the municipal boundary adjustments made in 2023 to accommodate the plant. If growth accelerates in the County beyond the updated forecasts set out in this memo, whether attributable to the plant or other factors, the County Official Plan can be reviewed and updated during a regular review or as needed. • Growth Distribution: Most additional population and housing growth from the 2024 MOF Projections will take place in Central Elgin. Most additional employment growth will occur in Central Elgin and Southwold. • County -Wide Residential Land Needs: Elgin County as a whole has sufficient designated residential land to meet the updated growth forecasts to 2051. However, Aylmer continues to face a land deficiency, as it did under the County LNA, and Central Elgin is now projected to run out of vacant land before 2051. • Residential Land Needs in Central Elgin: As noted in Hemson's memorandum Comments on Possible Expansion to Norman-Lyndale Settlement Area, 30 August 2024, in planning for additional residential land needs in Central Elgin: I E . 01 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo o Norman-Lyndale is situated directly adjacent to St. Thomas, with the proposed expansion area adjoining an existing residential area of the city. As such, the proposed expansion area represents the logical extension of the urban communities of both Norman-Lyndale and St. Thomas. The area Page 28 of 29 is appropriate location for growth and development and offers opportunities to provide a full mix and range of housing, including affordable housing. o Although Central Elgin has enough vacant land within its Tier 1 and 2 settlement areas to accommodate near -term and long-term housing growth, the vacant residential land in the Municipality's Tier 1 settlement areas is insufficient to meet long-term residential land needs to 2051. Therefore, provided that full municipal water and wastewater services can be extended to the proposed expansion area in a cost-effective manner, the expansion area is more suitable for urban development than lands located in Tier 2 settlement areas. • Employment Land Needs: Finally, the County's employment area land supply is adequate to meet forecast employment growth, both at the County level and locally. Southwold, in particular, has a significant long-term supply of vacant employment land. These findings are consistent with those outlined in the earlier County LNA. I IEM.IIN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,moo Page 29 of 29