02a - February 25, 2025 Growth Planning Steering Committee Meeting Post Agenda( I !Wmw Wmw' Iww� I VNN II�U.
Growth Planning Steering Committee
Post -Meeting Agenda
Tuesday, February 25, 2025, 12:30 p.m.
Council Chambers
450 Sunset Drive
St. Thomas ON
Note for Members of the Public:
Please click the link below to watch the Committee meeting:
https://www.facebook.com/EIginCounty
Accessible formats available upon request.
Pages
1. Call to Order
2. Approval of the agenda
3. Adoption of Minutes 2
4. Disclosure of Pecuniary Interest and the General Nature Thereof
5. Delegations
6. Reports/Briefings
6.1 Director of Planning and Development -Updated growth forecasts and 6
land needs assessment for County of Elgin
7. Other Business
8. Correspondence
9. Closed Meeting
9.1 Closed Meeting Minutes - January 24, 2025
9.2 Director of Planning and Development - Sunset Provincial Lands (verbal)
Municipal Act Section 239 (2) (h) information explicitly supplied in
confidence to the municipality or local board by Canada, a province or
territory or a Crown agency of any of them; and (k) a position, plan,
procedure, criteria or instruction to be applied to any negotiations carried
on or to be carried on by or on behalf of the municipality or local board.
10. Motion to Rise and Report
11. Date of Next Meeting
12. Adjournment
//
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ElginCOLPIIIIY'
Growth Planning Steering Committee
Minutes
January 24, 2025, 2:00 p.m.
Council Chambers
450 Sunset Drive
St. Thomas ON
Members Present: Warden Grant Jones, Chair
Deputy Warden Ed Ketchabaw
Councillor Dominique Giguere
Councillor Todd Noble
Staff Present: Blaine Parkin, Chief Administrative Officer/Clerk
Nicholas Loeb, Director of Legal Services
Peter Dutchak, Director of Engineering Services
Jennifer Ford, Director of Financial Services/Treasurer
Mat Vaughan, Director of Planning and Development
Carolyn Krahn, Manager of Economic Development, Tourism &
Strategic Initiatives
Katherine Thompson, Manager of Administrative
Services/Deputy Clerk
Stefanie Heide, Legislative Services Coordinator
1. Call to Order
The meeting was called to order at 2:00 p.m. with the Chief Administrative
Officer/Clerk in the chair.
2. Election of Committee Chair and Vice Chair
Moved by: Councillor Noble
Seconded by: Councillor Giguere
RESOLVED THAT Warden Jones be elected as Chair of the Growth Planning
Steering Committee for 2025.
Motion Carried.
Moved by: Warden Jones
Seconded by: Councillor Giguere
Page 2 of 41
RESOLVED THAT Deputy Warden Ketchabaw be elected Vice Chair of the
Growth Planning Steering Committee for 2025.
Motion Carried.
3. Approval of the Agenda
Warden Jones assumed the Chair of the meeting.
Moved by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw
Seconded by: Councillor Noble
RESOLVED THAT the agenda for the January 24, 2025 meeting of the Growth
Planning Steering Committee be approved as presented.
Motion Carried.
4. Adoption of Minutes
Moved by: Councillor Noble
Seconded by: Councillor Giguere
RESOLVED THAT the minutes of the meeting held on October 18, 2024 be
adopted.
Motion Carried.
5. Disclosure of Pecuniary Interest and the General Nature Thereof
None.
6. Delegations
None.
7. Reports/Briefings
7.1 Manager of Administrative Services/Deputy Clerk - Pre -Budget
Consultation Feedback for the 2025 Ontario Budget
The Manager of Administrative Services/Deputy Clerk presented a report
with a draft letter for the Committee's consideration to be submitted for
pre -budget consultation feedback for the 2025 Ontario Budget.
Moved by: Councillor Giguere
Seconded by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw
RESOLVED THAT feedback from the Growth Planning Steering
Committee be incorporated into the Pre -Budget Consultation submission
and recommended to County Council for approval at the January 28, 2025
meeting.
2
Page 3 of 41
Motion Carried.
8. Other Business
None.
9. Correspondence
None.
10. Closed Meeting
Moved by: Councillor Noble
Seconded by: Councillor Giguere
RESOLVED THAT we do now proceed into closed meeting session in
accordance with the Municipal Act to discuss the following matters under
Municipal Act Section 239 (2):
Closed Meeting Item #1 - Closed Meeting Minutes - October 18, 2024
Closed Meeting Item #2 - Sunset Provincial Lands
(c) a proposed or pending acquisition or disposition of land by the municipality or
local board; (h) information explicitly supplied in confidence to the municipality or
local board by Canada, a province or territory or a Crown agency of any of them;
and (k) a position, plan, procedure, criteria or instruction to be applied to any
negotiations carried on or to be carried on by or on behalf of the municipality or
local board.
Motion Carried.
10.1 Closed Meeting Minutes - October 18, 2024
10.2 Sunset Provincial Lands
11. Motion to Rise and Report
Moved by: Councillor Noble
Seconded by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw
RESOLVED THAT we do now rise and report.
Motion Carried.
Closed Meeting Item #1 - Closed Meeting Minutes - October 18, 2024
Moved by: Councillor Noble
Seconded by: Councillor Giguere
RESOLVED THAT the October 18, 2024 Closed Meeting Minutes be adopted.
3
Page 4 of 41
Motion Carried.
Closed Meeting Item #2 - Sunset Provincial Lands
Moved by: Councillor Noble
Seconded by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw
RESOLVED THAT staff do now proceed as directed.
Motion Carried.
12. Date of Next Meeting
The Growth Planning Steering Committee will meet again at the call of the Chair.
13. Adjournment
Moved by: Councillor Giguere
Seconded by: Deputy Warden Ketchabaw
RESOLVED THAT we do now adjourn at 4:00 p.m. to meet again at the call of
the Chair.
Motion Carried.
Blaine Parkin,
Chief Administrative Officer/Clerk.
Warden Grant Jones,
Chair.
2
Page 5 of 41
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Report to Growth Planning Steering Committee
From: Mat Vaughan, Director of Planning and Development
Date: February 28, 2025
Subject: Updated growth forecasts and land needs assessment for County of Elgin
Recommendation(s):
THAT the report titled "Updated growth forecasts and land needs assessment for
County of Elgin" from the Director of Planning and Development dated February 28,
2025, be received and filed.
AND THAT County Council direct planning staff to update the County's adopted Official
Plan with the new population and employment projections and bring the Official Plan
back to Council for review and readoption.
Introduction:
As the County continues to work towards finalizing its Official Plan approval process
with the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, several factors influencing population
and employment growth have recently changed which have caused the need to revisit
the County's 2022 Population and Employment forecasts. Hemson Consulting has been
retained to update the forecasts and has recently shared the update with planning staff.
The results and conclusions of Hemson's update are included herein, along with staff's
recommendations for next steps with the County's adopted Official Plan.
Background and Discussion:
As part of the Elgin County Official Plan Review Background Analysis, along with other
studies, the completion of population and employment projections were completed by
Hemson Consulting Ltd. to determine how and where Elgin County would grow.
On November 15, 2023, as part of an update to the Hemson Growth Forecasts and
Land Needs Analysis Report, Hemson Consulting Ltd provided a memorandum
analyzes on the effect of the Volkswagen EV battery plant in St. Thomas on the long-
term growth prospects including population, employment and associated land needs.
The overall conclusions of the memorandum were that planned housing growth in Elgin,
as well as planned employment areas, remain an appropriate basis for the County
Official Plan and need not be revised.
Page 6 of 41
In a memorandum dated August 30, 2024, Hemson Consulting Ltd provided comments
on the proposed expansion of the Norman-Lyndale Tier I settlement area in the
Municipality of Central Elgin, which at the time, was based on an increase of 3,000
homes, or 10,000 new residents. The comments were included in a report entitled
"Norman-Lyndale Settlement Boundary Expansion" which was presented to Council on
September 10, 2024. The memorandum was provided to address the need for
additional residential land uses in Central Elgin, and more broadly in the County of Elgin
and City of St. Thomas. The outlook on the long-term growth prospects for the County
and Central Elgin remained consistent with the conclusions of Hemson's two previous
reports Population, Housing and Employment Forecasts and Associated Land Needs
Analysis (2022), and an Update to Hemson Growth Forecasts and Land Needs Analysis
Report (2023).
Based on new information, population projections for the area changed and now
estimated at 7,500 - 15,000 residents (2,000 — 7,000 homes). These new projections
tipped the scale in reference to current population and employment projections and
required an update to the County's 2023 Population and Employment projections. On
October 8, 2024 County Council approved to contract Hemson Consulting Ltd., to
update the County 's Population and Employment Projections.
Hemson's updated growth forecast and land needs assessment examines population,
housing, and employment forecasts and incorporates recent developments such as the
Fall 2024 Ministry of Finance (MOF) Ontario Population Projections, Volkswagen's
proposed EV battery plant in St. Thomas, and the proposed expansion of the Norman-
Lyndale Tier I settlement area.
Key points from Hemson's assessment include:
1. Population Projections: The 2024 MOF Projections estimate a population of
141,600 permanent residents in the Elgin Census Division by 2051, an
increase of 9,500 residents compared to previous forecasts.
2. Volkswagen EV Battery Plant: Expected to create 2,000 to 3,000 on -site
jobs and additional spin-off jobs, significantly impacting regional employment
and growth.
3. Norman-Lyndale Expansion: Proposed expansion involves 270 acres for
residential or mixed uses, potentially increasing Central Elgin's population
growth.
4. Growth Distribution: Most additional population and housing growth will
occur in Central Elgin, while employment growth will be concentrated in
Central Elgin and Southwold.
The projected population growth for Central Elgin from 2021 to 2051 is an
additional 3,910 people. This increase is attributed to the potential expansion
of the Norman-Lyndale settlement area and its proximity to the Volkswagen
EV battery plant.
Page 7 of 41
Aylmer is projected to grow by 1,480 housing units from 2021 to 2051.
This growth is distributed across intensification within the built-up area,
development in designated growth areas (DGA), and rural areas.
5. Land Needs Assessment: Elgin County has sufficient designated residential
land to meet growth projections to 2051, except for Aylmer and Central Elgin,
which face land deficiencies.
Based on the housing unit allocations and density assumptions, Aylmer
requires 43.9 hectares of net land for the DGA, which translates to 73.1
hectares of gross land when accounting for public lands and infrastructure
needs.
The County's employment area land supply is adequate to meet forecast
employment growth.
6. Caution with MOF Projections: These projections should be interpreted with
caution due to their variability and sensitivity to changing Federal policies.
7. Recommendations: The assessment suggests that the proposed expansion
area in Norman-Lyndale is suitable for urban development, provided
municipal services can be extended cost-effectively.
The current analysis indicates that Aylmer faces a land deficiency and will
need additional land to meet its long-term residential needs. Aylmer faces a
land deficiency of 35.6 hectares to accommodate its projected housing growth
by 2051
The memorandum concludes that the updated forecasts align with Provincial planning
requirements and provide a framework for addressing the County's evolving land use
and growth management needs.
The effects of the VW Plant on Central Elgin
The memorandum indicates that Central Elgin is projected to run out of vacant land
before 2051. Specifically, the updated analysis shows that Central Elgin will have a land
deficiency of 19.9 hectares by 2051. This is a change from the previous study, which
had projected a surplus of 36.7 hectares. Despite having enough vacant land within its
Tier 1 and Tier 2 settlement areas to accommodate near -term and long-term housing
growth, the vacant residential land in Central Elgin's Tier 1 settlement areas is
insufficient to meet long-term residential land needs to 2051.
Therefore, the proposed expansion of the Norman-Lyndale settlement area is
considered a suitable solution to address this deficiency, provided that municipal water
and wastewater services can be extended to the area cost-effectively.
Page 8 of 41
Financial Implications:
N/A
Alignment with Strategic Priorities:
Serving Elgin
Growing Elgin
Investing in Elgin
❑ Ensuring alignment of
® Planning for and
❑ Ensuring we have the
current programs and
facilitating commercial,
necessary tools,
services with community
industrial, residential, and
resources, and
need.
agricultural growth.
infrastructure to deliver
programs and services
® Exploring different ways
® Fostering a healthy
now and in the future.
of addressing community
environment.
need.
❑ Delivering mandated
❑ Enhancing quality of
programs and services
® Engaging with our
place.
efficiently and effectively.
community and other
stakeholders.
Local Municipal Partner Impact:
Two LMPs with notable changes in the latest Population and employment lands needs
assessment are Central Elgin and Aylmer.
Communication Requirements:
This information should be circulated to all of the local municipalities.
Conclusion:
Hemson's updated analysis aligns with Provincial planning requirements and provides a
framework for addressing the County's land use and growth management needs. Based
on this analysis, staff are seeking direction from Council to accept Hemson's updated
analysis and update the County's adopted new Official Plan with the information
contained in the memorandum and bring the Official Plan to a future Council meeting for
their review and consideration.
All of which is Respectfully Submitted
Mat Vaughan
Director of Planning and Development
Approved for Submission
Blaine Parkin
Chief Administrative Officer/Clerk
Page 9 of 41
F H7E 7MS 07
PN
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Hemson Consulting Ltd
1000 — 30 St. Patrick Street, Toronto, ON M5T
416-593-5090 1 hemson@hemson.com I www.hemson.com
MEMORANDUM
To: Mat Vaughan, Director of Planning and Development, County of Elgin
From: Stefan Krzeczunowicz, Patrick Barbieri
Date: February 4, 2025
Re: Updated Growth Forecasts and Land Needs Assessment for County of Elgin
This memorandum provides updates to the population, housing, and employment forecasts
for the County of Elgin, originally set out in the Population, Housing and Employment
Forecasts and Associated Land Needs Analysis (County LNA) prepared by Hemson
Consulting in June 2022 and amended on November 23, 2022. These updates incorporate
analyses of recent developments including the release of Fall 2024 Ministry of Finance
Ontario Population Projections, Volkswagen 7s proposed electric vehicle (EV) battery plant in
St. Thomas, and the proposed expansion of the Norman-Lyndale Tier I settlement area in
the Municipality of Central Elgin as well as recent growth trends. The objective is to
assess the impact of these developments on the County 7s long-term growth prospects and
associated land needs.
The forecast update addresses significant developments that have occurred since the
completion of the County LNA, including:
1. Release of Fall 2024 Ministry of Finance Ontario Population Projections (MOF
Projections): The MOF Projections estimate a population of 141,600 permanent
residents in the Elgin Census Division by 2051, an increase of 9,500 residents
compared to the County LNA forecast. The Elgin Census Division, as defined by
Statistics Canada, includes the County of Egin and the City of St. Thomas.
The Provincial Planning Statement2024 (PPS 2024) which came into force on
October 20, 2024, requires the County to base its population and employment
forecasts on the MOF Projections, or a modified version of the projections as
appropriate.
Page 10 of 41
2. Volkswagen EV Battery Plant: The plan by Volkswagen to construct a major
electric vehicle (EV) battery plant on a 1,500 acre site in St. Thomas, which is
expected to transform the regional economy. The plant is projected to create 2,000
to 3,000 on -site jobs, with thousands of additional spin-off jobs. In 2023, the
Provincial Government passed Bill 63, the St. Thomas -Central Elgin Boundary
AdjustmentAct, which transferred 700 acres of land from the Municipality of
Central Elgin to the City of St. Thomas. This is in addition to 800 acres purchased by
St. Thomas in 2022.
3. Proposed Expansion of Norman-Lyndale Tier I Settlement Area: The expansion
involves approximately 270 acres of land located at 467 Sunset Drive, in the
Municipality of Central Elgin. These lands, previously part of the site of the St.
Thomas Psychiatric Hospital, are currently owned by the Province of Ontario.
Redevelopment plans are underway to convert the area, which is currently
cultivated farmland, for residential or mixed uses.
The main purpose of the updated forecasts is to translate the higher MOF Projections into a
revised housing unit forecast, an associated employment growth forecast, and an
assessment of the sufficiency of the County's remaining vacant land supply across local
municipalities. It is noted that the 2021 vacant supply data used for the County LNA has not
been updated as part of the analysis.
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The PPS 2024 now requires the County to base its population and employment forecasts on
MOF projections, or a modified version of the projections as appropriate. As such, the
forecasts set out in this memo are based on population growth contained in the 2024 MOF
Projections. However, care should be taken if these forecasts are to be used to make
substantive changes to the County OP for the following reasons:
• First, the MOF Projections are annual projections of population not employment,
whereas the most significant changes to growth forecasts in the County LNA are
related to employment.
• Second, the MOF Projections are produced annually for Ontario and its 49 Census
Divisions. As noted above, the Elgin Census Division includes both the County and
St. Thomas.
Page 11 of 41
Third, the MOF Projections assume that population growth will reflect recent
migration trends and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality
patterns. To that extent, they are not "forecasts" that explicitly account for changes
in future Federal immigration policies, and local housing demand, land use plans,
infrastructure investments, or the availability of land for development. As such,
projections for Census Divisions with limited land for development may overstate
the growth potential. And projections for areas with significant planned
infrastructure investment may understate growth potential.
• Of particular relevance to the County of Elgin is that the MOF Projections are highly
variable and are particularly sensitive to shifts in Federal immigration and non-
permanent resident (NPR) policies. While immigration and NPRs contribute
minimally to Elgin County's growth (10% and 6%, respectively, between 2018/19 and
2022/23), broader immigration and NPR trends influence intra-provincial migration
to the County. Early in 2024, some changes to NPR targets were carried out,
particularly to reduce the numbers of international students. Other changes through
that year have sought to tighten eligibility for employers to hire temporary foreign
workers. In September of 2024, following a Federal Cabinet retreat, the government
announced a review of the targets for permanent immigration. And more recently, it
cut permanent resident targets 20% from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025 and plans to
keep it on a downtrend after that with 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. The
new targets for permanent residents will still be well above historical levels.
However, they will be much more in line with immigration levels assumed under the
original County LNA. Future MOF projections may therefore be expected to
decrease as the reduced immigration targets take full effect.
In short, while the MOF Projections can provide valuable insights, they must be interpreted
with caution, considering their variability, sensitivity to changing Federal policies, and
limited capacity to reflect local development opportunities and constraints.
Figure 1 outlines the components of growth for the Elgin Census Division based on the MOF
Projections.
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Page 12 of 41
Figure 1: Components of Population Growth, MOF Population Projections
500
2,000
1,500
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00
500
0
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11..,000
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Source: Hemson Consulting, based on MOF Projections, Fall 2024
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The 2024 MOF Projections, which serve as the basis for this update, provide population
projections only and are limited to the Census Division level, encompassing both the County
and City of St. Thomas. To develop a revised forecast for the County, the following steps
were undertaken:
■ Census Division Population Allocation: The growth distribution between the County
and City remains consistent with the assumptions in the County LNA. This means that
approximately 50% of the projected population growth from 2021 to 2051 is allocated to
each. The MOF Projections estimate a total growth of 43,000 people for the Elgin
Census Division, with 21,080 allocated to the County. Figure 2 illustrates the difference
between the County LNA and MOF Projections to 2051.1
1 It is noted that in April 2024, the City of St. Thomas released an updated 2051 population growth forecast of
797500 by 2051. These forecasts rightly note that the then most recent (2023) MOF Projections do not account for
the impact of the EV battery plant on the City's growth (see Watson and Associates, Growth Analysis Study, April
2024).
H =EMS 0) N 4
Page 13 of 41
Figure 2: Comparison of County LNA Forecast and MOF Projections to 2051
160,000
141,600
140,000
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op) J
120,000
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Source: Hemson Consulting, based on MOF Projections, Fall 2024.
■ Allocation of County Growth to Local Municipalities: Revisions to the allocation of
population, housing, and employment throughout the County reflect recent
developments, including:
r,1
o population and housing growth trends as identified in Statistics Canada's
2024 Annual Demographic Estimates and recent CMHC housing market
data;
o employment expectations for the County associated with the EV battery
plant as set out in Hemson's memorandum Update to Hemson Growth
Forecasts and Land Needs, dated November 23, 2023; and
0 observations on County growth expectations set out in Hemson's
memorandum Comments on Possible Expansion to Norman-Lyndale
Settlement Area, dated August 30, 2024.
Additional employment growth in the County resulting from the EV battery plant, as well
as employment arising from increased population growth, have been allocated based on
the same methodology used for the County LNA. Population -related employment is
generally allocated on the basis the location of population growth. Employment land
employment is allocated to local municipalities with existing vacant employment lands,
such as Southwold and Central Elgin.
H =EMS 0) N
Page 14 of 41
i. Revised Population Allocations
As shown above in Figure 2, the 2024 MOF Projections estimate higher population growth
for the Elgin Census Division to 2051 compared to the earlier County LNA. The updated
population forecasts for the County assume that this higher growth will incorporate
additional population and housing arising from the new battery plant for the following
reasons:
• The long-term demand for housing in the County is unlikely to be significantly
impacted by the plant. The housing forecasts in the County LNA implicitly assume
that a small portion of workers employed in the County's employment areas will
reside in newly constructed housing within the County.
• The battery plant, expected to create up to 37000 on -site jobs in St. Thomas, could
result in approximately 15% of these workers (about 450 individuals) choosing to
live in the County. This would generate an estimated demand for 225 additional
housing units, accounting for the likelihood that some workers may transition from
existing jobs within the County to positions at the plant. This represents only 3% of
the 30-year housing demand forecast of 7,220 units in the County LNA.
As shown in Figure 3, Central Elgin has been allocated a greater share of updated
population growth due to the potential expansion of the Norman-Lyndale settlement area
and its proximity to the battery plant. Central Elgin 7s annual growth rate has increased by
1%, resulting in an additional 3,910 people by 2051. All other local municipalities in the
County also exhibit increased growth rates to 2051.
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Page 15 of 41
Figure 3: Updated Local Population Forecasts, 2021-2051
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m 1V1 0 IF Ir o e c t'ii 0 in Irev'ii c u s Study
Source: Hemson Consulting
ii. Employment Growth Impacts
Although development of the battery plant is still in its early stages, construction and initial
production at the plant will likely occur prior to the next County Official Plan review in 5 to
10 years. Nevertheless, the employment forecasts in the County LNA remain a reasonable
basis on which to plan for employment on both designated employment land and other
community -related and rural employment activities.
As a result of incorporating the higher population growth associated with the 2024 MOF
Projections, total employment in the County is also expected to grow correspondingly. All
local municipalities are forecast to see an increase in employment by 2051, particularly
those with available employment lands, such as Central Flgin and Southwold. Figure 4
illustrates the revised employment growth for the County's local municipalities.
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Page 16 of 41
Figure 4: Updated Total Employment Forecasts, 2021-2051
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m (Based on IMOF IP Ir oJectioin is I Irev'iious Study
Source: Hemson Consulting
a) Employment Land Employment Impacts
Volkswagen's EV battery plant is expected to create up to 3,000 on -site jobs in St. Thomas.
Employment land job growth associated with this development within the County is
anticipated to be concentrated in Southwold and Central Elgin, reflecting their existing
vacant employment lands and the potential spin-off effects of the plant (see Figure 5).2
2 For a detailed discussion of the job multipliers, and timing and location of job growth associated with the battery
plant, including implications for County growth and land needs, see Hemson Consulting, Update to Hemson
Growth Forecasts and Land Needs, November 23, 2023.
JHEMSONI 8
Page 17 of 41
Figure 5: Updated Employment Land Employment Forecasts, 2021-2051
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�� 2, 650
1,22
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,�,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 780
I aylhairn ���r W'ww ww w'www rw f+r'''r59®
Ay Irri e Ir J 1� I IJ ,
690
0 500 1 7000 111500 21Y000 21Y500 37000 37500
m (Based on I OF iro„pect'iioin is I irev'iious Study
Source: Hemson Consulting
The updated employment land employment forecasts consider the following factors:
• Large manufacturing investments, like the EV battery plant, do not necessarily
generate significant growth in their immediate vicinity. Much of the construction
labour and permanent operating employment will consist of commuters from
London, St. Thomas, and urban areas beyond the County.
• The original County LNA forecasts already accounted for similar levels of economic,
employment, and housing growth over a 30-year horizon, even though the
concentrated nature of growth resulting from this single major investment was not
specifically anticipated.
• Official plans are regularly reviewed. If growth exceeds forecast targets whether or
not driven by the EV battery plant the County's Official Plan can be revised during
scheduled reviews or at any other time, as needed.
b) Non -Employment Land Impacts
Employment growth outside designated employment areas is divided into two categories:
"population- related employment" and "rural employment
Page 18 of 41
• Population -related employment is employment in Elgin that primarily serves the
resident population and includes sectors such as retail, education, health care, local
government, and urban work -at-home employment. The distribution of population -
related employment across the County is largely tied to population growth and the
community area (i.e. residential) land needs assessment accounts for urban land
needs associated with this type of employment. To the extent that the County's
population and housing forecasts remain unaffected by the battery plant (see
below), the plant 7s impact on population- related employment in urban communities
is expected to be minimal.
• Rural Employment encompasses jobs in rural areas, including primary industries
and agriculture, as well as some uses typically found in urban employment areas,
but not located on urban land designated for industrial or commercial use. These
are typically small-scale manufacturing or construction businesses as well as
tourism (including agri-tourism) and recreation activities which play an important
role in Elgin. Also important in the Elgin context is the role of agricultural labour,
particularly in Bayham and Malahide. While the battery plant is unlikely to directly
impact most of these activities, additional retail or service demands may arise from
workers on their way to work from London through Southwold and Central Elgin
along Highways 4 and 30, and Wonderland Rd South and Wellington Rd South.
Commuters to the battery plant could provide increased trade to gas stations on
these major routes (though it is unclear whether there are any stations currently in
the County at these locations). Of note is that, by 2051, the vast majority of
passenger vehicles will be electrically powered. Convenience retail demand from
commuters may also grow slightly, but it is unlikely to warrant significant retail
space or employment lands.
Food services are another commercial use potentially affected by commuter traffic
from London. However, large manufacturing employers often provide on -site food
services, reducing external demand. Additionally, St. Thomas already hosts
numerous coffee shops and fast food outlets, including a Tim Hortons very near the
battery plant site at Highways 52 and 30. Given the existing and planned
commercial developments in London, along the Highway 401 corridor (e.g. ON
Routes), and in St. Thomas, any additional demand from commuters is expected to
be adequately met over time.
M=
Page 19 of 41
uuuu uuunnl (IIIIIII ��uuuum uummu uuuuuuuuu S ASS �EIIIm umumu uuuum IC 0 �M �M t l. uuuum FY
lumum uuuuuuumu
uuu
The methodology for calculating the Community Area Land Needs based on the 2024 MOF
Projections remains consistent with the approach outline in the County LNA. Key factors
include:
• a net -to -gross land need assumption of 60% to 70%, accounting for land required
for municipal infrastructure, local retail, and institutional requirements;
an expected density of 25-27 residential units per net hectare for future residential
development;
• housing -type propensities consistent with the County LNA; and
vacant land supply data that aligns with the County LNA.
This update incorporates the newly available 2021 Census net undercoverage rates for each
municipality and revises the assumption for expected community area jobs, reducing it from
1 job per 12 people to 1 job per 10 people to reflect latest trends.
i. Housing Allocations and Growth
Table 1 summarizes the distribution of total housing in the County between 2021 and 2051.
In keeping with PPS and County Official Plan policies, most growth will be directed to Tier 1
settlement areas, either through intensification within built-up areas or development on
vacant land in designated growth areas (IDGA). A smaller share of housing growth is
allocated to rural settlements and scattered lots in rural areas.
M=
Page 20 of 41
Table 1: Housing Allocations, 2021-2051
2021
2051
Total Unit
Growth
Aylmer
37070
47550
17480
Bayham
27260
37050
790
Central Elgin
57460
97220
37760
Dutton/Du nwich
17600
27100
500
Malahide
37010
47510
17500
Southwold
17710
27520
810
West Elgin
27100
27490
390
Elgin County
197210
287440
97230
Source: Hemson based on MOF Projections, Fall 2024.
Table 2 shows the amount of housing growth forecast to occur in each lower -tier
municipality as intensification within the existing built-up area between 2021 and 2051.
About 16% of new units are expected to be built as intensification within the built-up area,
requiring no additional land.
Table 2: Housing Growth Through Intensification, 2021 - 2051
Total Unit
Growth
Intensification
Rate
Intensification
Units
Aylmer
17480
20%
296
Bayham
790
15%
119
Central Elgin
37760
20%
752
Dutton/Du nwich
500
15%
75
Malahide
17500
10%
150
Southwold
810
15%
122
West Elgin
390
0%
0
Elgin County
97230
16%
17513
Source: Hemson Consulting
Table 3 sets out the share of housing growth about 8% across the County that is forecast
to be accommodated in rural areas, both within unserviced Tier 3 settlement areas as well
as on scattered vacant lots of record outside settlement areas. As with the intensification
units, development in the Tier 3 settlement areas and rural areas is assumed to not require
any additional land as there is sufficient vacant land already available in those areas. No
rural area growth is assigned to Alymer.
HEMSON 112
Page 21 of 41
Table 3: New Housing in Tier 3 Settlements & Rural Areas, 2021 - 2051
Total Unit
Growth
Tier 3 Share
Tier 3 Units
Aylmer
17480
0%
0
B ayh a m
790
10%
79
Central Elgin
37760
10%
376
Dutton/Du nwich
500
10%
50
Malahide
17500
10%
150
Southwold
810
10%
81
West Elgin
390
10%
39
Elgin County
97230
8%
775
Source: Hemson Consulting
The remaining 75% of housing growth 6,942 units will take place in the DGA (see Table
4) .
Table 4: Housing Growth in Designated Growth Areas, 2021 - 2051
Total Unit
Growth
Designated
Growth Area
Share
Designated
Growth Area
Units
Aylmer
17480
80%
17184
Bayham
790
75%
593
Central Elgin
37760
70%
27632
Dutton/Du nwich
500
75%
375
Malahide
17500
80%
17200
Southwold
810
75%
608
West Elgin
390
90%
351
Elgin County
97230
75%
67942
Source: Hemson Consulting
ii. Density and Land Requirements
A survey of recently constructed housing densities across Elgin's settlement areas
undertaken as part of the County LNA informed the analysis, with density assumptions for
future development being slightly higher than current trends to align with Provincial and
Page 22 of 41
Official Plan policies promoting a more compact urban form and transit -supportive
settlement areas:
• Central Elgin and Aylmer: 27 units per hectare
• Other DGA: 25 units per hectare
Based on the housing unit allocations and density assumptions, a "net" community area
land need for the DGA is calculated for each municipality. Net land needs are then
translated into gross (developable) land needs to accommodate public lands (e.g. local
parks, local roadways, stormwater management facilities, and local schools) and
population- related employment (e.g. local retail). Table 5 summarizes the net and gross
land requirements for each municipality.
Table 5: Land Required in Designated Growth Areas (DGA) to 2051
DGA Units
Unit Density
Net Land Need
(ha)
Net to Gross
Assumption
Gross Land
Need (ha)
Aylmer
1,184
27
43.9
60%
73.1
Bayham
593
25
23.7
70%
33.9
Central Elgin
2,632
27
97.5
60%
162.5
Dutton/Dunwich
375
25
15.0
70%
21.4
Malah ide
1,200
25
48.0
70%
68.6
Southwold
608
25
24.3
70%
34.7
West Elgin
351
25
14.0
70%
20.1
Elgin County
6,942
26
267.7
65%
412.2
Source: Hemson Consulting
iii. Sufficiency of Supply
This land need is then compared to the availability of vacant land in Tier 1 and Tier 2
settlement areas to determine the sufficiency of supply. Table 6 displays the results of this
comparison.
Page 23 of 41
Table 6: Sufficiency of DGA Residential Vacant Land to 2051 (gross ha)
Sufficiency of
Vacant Land:
Vacant Land:
Vacant Land to
Gross Land
Tier 1
Tier 2
Accommodate
Need (ha)
Settlements
Settlements
Vacant Land
Allocation
Aylmer
73.1
37.5
0.0
37.5
(35.6)
Bayham
33.9
122.8
0.0
122.8
89.0
Central Elgin
162.5
61.3
81.3
142.6
(19.9)
Dutton/Dunwich
21.4
68.1
0.0
68.1
46.7
Malahide
68.6
0.0
87.5
87.5
18.9
Southwold
34.7
0.0
108.8
108.8
74.1
West Elgin
20.1
100.8
0.0
100.8
80.8
Elgin County
412.2
390.5
277.6
668.2
256.0
Source: Hemson Consulting
As seen above, Elgin County as a whole has sufficient designated residential land to meet
growth projections to 2051. However, Aylmer continues to face a land deficiency, as it did
under the County LNA, and Central Elgin is now projected to run out of vacant land before
2051 (see Table 7).
Table 7: Sufficiency of DGA, County LNA vs. 2024 Update
2021 Report
2024 Update
Aylmer
(20.8)
(35.6)
Bayham
93.2
89.0
Central Elgin
36.7
(19.9)
Dutton/Dunwich
47.5
46.7
Malahide
29.4
18.9
Southwold
75.8
74.1
West Elgin
81.3
80.8
Elgin County
343.3
256.0
Source: Hemson Consulting
II I,S A S S �EII SI, I, 1,
�NA �P �1 ................ . 0 Y �NA �EII
This section presents the results of the updated employment area land needs assessment.
Employment area is generally required to accommodate employment land employment
growth.3 Table 8 provides details on employment land employment growth forecasts to
2051.
3 Both the P/anningAct(in 2023) and the Provincial Planning Statement (in 2024) introduced updated definitions
of an "area of employment", excluding institutional and commercial uses, except for retail and office uses
Page 24 of 41
The County requires sufficient employment land to support the addition of about 5,200 new
jobs, which represents an increase of 1,300 jobs compared to the earlier forecasts for 2051
in the County LNA (see Table 8). A small portion of these new jobs can be accommodated
as intensification on existing sites in the Town of Aylmer and Township of Southwold. The
land needs assessment assumes that approximately 6% of all employment land employment
job growth will occur through intensification.
Table 8: Employment Land Employment Growth 2021- 2051
2021
2051
Total ELE
Growth
Aylmer
17600
27455
855
B ayh a m
350
432
82
Central Elgin
17530
27706
17176
Dutton/Du nwich
110
110
0
Malahide
670
670
0
Southwold
650
37230
27580
West Elgin
340
837
497
Elgin County
57250
107440
57190
Source: Hemson Consulting
The land needs assessment assumes an employment land density of 20 jobs per net
hectare in municipalities where lands are generally serviced and between 12 and 15 jobs
per net hectare in municipalities where lands are generally unserviced. Table 9 presents the
net land need required to accommodate the employment land jobs in Tier 1 and Tier 2
settlement areas.
associated with manufacturing, warehousing, and other permitted uses. This change is expected to have minimal
impact on the County's land needs assessment, as most employment areas in Elgin lack the now -excluded uses.
Page 25 of 41
Table 9: Employment Area Land Need 2021- 2051
Job Growth on
Employment
Lands
Density
Assumed (Jobs
per Net ha)
Land Need to
Accommodate
Job Growth (ha)
Net to Gross
Assumption
Gross
Developable
Land Need (ha)
Aylmer
684
20
34.2
80%
42.8
Bayham
41
12
3.4
85%
4.0
Central Elgin
847
20
42.3
80%
52.9
Dutton/Dunwich
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Malahide
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Southwold
27245
20
112.2
80%
140.3
West Elgin
248
15
16.6
85%
19.5
Elgin County
4,065
19
208.7
80%
259.5
Source: Hemson Consulting
The net land need shown in Table 9 is translated into a gross land need using net -to -gross
factors. This accounts for long-term site vacancy due to topographical and locational
constraints and provides for public land needs, such as local roads, stormwater
management facilities, and other utilities in employment areas.
Based on this analysis, the County will need approximately 260 gross developable hectares
of designated employment land to meet the forecast employment land employment growth
to 2051.
The sufficiency of the currently designated employment lands in Elgin is summarized in
Table 10. This table demonstrates that the County's employment area land supply is
adequate to meet the forecast employment growth, both at the County level and locally. The
Township of Southwold, in particular, has a significant long-term supply of vacant
employment land. These findings are not materially different from those set out in the
earlier County LNA (see Table 11).
Page 26 of 41
Table 10: Sufficiency of Employment Area to 2051 (Gross Ha)
Sufficiency of
Vacant Land
Vacant Land to
Gross Land
within Tier 1 & 2
Accommodate
Need (ha)
Settlements
Allocation
Aylmer
42.8
42.8
0.0
Bayham
4.0
4.0
0.0
Central Elgin
52.9
107.0
54.1
Dutton/Dunwich
n/a
n/a
n/a
Malahide
n/a
n/a
n/a
Southwold
140.3
198.4
58.1
West Elgin
19.5
19.5
0.0
Elgin County
259.5
371.7
112.2
Source: Hemson Consulting
Table 11: Sufficiency of Employment Area, County LNA vs. 2024 Update
2023
Supplemental
Report
2024 Update
Aylmer
0.0
0.0
Bayham
0.0
0.0
Central Elgin
62.0
54.1
Dutton/Dunwich
n/a
n/a
Malahide
n/a
n/a
Southwold
93.5
58.1
West Elgin
0.0
0.0
Elgin County
155.6
112.2
Source: Hemson Consulting
The updated analysis above aligns with Provincial planning requirements and provides a
framework for addressing the County's evolving land use and growth management needs.
Based on this analysis, the following conclusions are made:
Page 27 of 41
• Updated Population Projections: The 2024 MOF Projections estimate a population
of 141,600 permanent residents in the Elgin Census Division by 2051, representing
an increase of 9,500 residents compared to the County LNA forecast.
• Caution in Using MOF Projections: While the PPS 2024 requires the County to
base its population and employment forecasts on the MOF Projections, these
projections should be interpreted with caution, considering their variability,
sensitivity to changing Federal policies, and limited capacity to reflect local
development opportunities and constraints. Future MOF Projections may be
expected to decrease as reduced Federal immigration targets are implemented over
the coming years.
• County -Wide Planned Growth Remains Valid: In general, planned housing growth
in Elgin and designated employment areas remain an appropriate basis for the
County Official Plan. These do not require wholesale revisions due to the
announcement of the new EV battery plant or the municipal boundary adjustments
made in 2023 to accommodate the plant. If growth accelerates in the County beyond
the updated forecasts set out in this memo, whether attributable to the plant or
other factors, the County Official Plan can be reviewed and updated during a regular
review or as needed.
• Growth Distribution: Most additional population and housing growth from the 2024
MOF Projections will take place in Central Elgin. Most additional employment
growth will occur in Central Elgin and Southwold.
• County -Wide Residential Land Needs: Elgin County as a whole has sufficient
designated residential land to meet the updated growth forecasts to 2051. However,
Aylmer continues to face a land deficiency, as it did under the County LNA, and
Central Elgin is now projected to run out of vacant land before 2051.
• Residential Land Needs in Central Elgin: As noted in Hemson's memorandum
Comments on Possible Expansion to Norman-Lyndale Settlement Area, 30 August
2024, in planning for additional residential land needs in Central Elgin:
M=
o Norman-Lyndale is situated directly adjacent to St. Thomas, with the
proposed expansion area adjoining an existing residential area of the city.
As such, the proposed expansion area represents the logical extension of
the urban communities of both Norman-Lyndale and St. Thomas. The area
Page 28 of 41
is appropriate location for growth and development and offers opportunities
to provide a full mix and range of housing, including affordable housing.
o Although Central Elgin has enough vacant land within its Tier 1 and 2
settlement areas to accommodate near -term and long-term housing growth,
the vacant residential land in the Municipality's Tier 1 settlement areas is
insufficient to meet long-term residential land needs to 2051. Therefore,
provided that full municipal water and wastewater services can be extended
to the proposed expansion area in a cost-effective manner, the expansion
area is more suitable for urban development than lands located in Tier 2
settlement areas.
• Employment Land Needs: Finally, the County's employment area land supply is
adequate to meet forecast employment growth, both at the County level and locally.
Southwold, in particular, has a significant long-term supply of vacant employment
land. These findings are consistent with those outlined in the earlier County LNA.
O=
Page 29 of 41
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